Delaware Valley Weather Blog

Last Updated: 08:10 PM GMT on Setembro 29, 2009 — Last Comment: 11:59 PM GMT on Outubro 31, 2009

	Pacific Earthquake/Tsunami!!!!!

Posted by: wxgeek723, 10:33 PM GMT on Setembro 26, 2009

FROM NBC:

WASHINGTON - A tsunami struck the capital of American Samoa on Tuesday after an offshore earthquake that U.S. government agencies said registered 7.9 magnitude.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or structural damage.

Fili Sagapolutele, who works at the Samoa News, says water flowed inland about 100 yards before receding, leaving cars stuck in mud.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, a branch of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, issued a tsunami warning for Hawaii, Papua New Guinea and other Pacific Islands after the quake hit about 120 miles southwest of the remote Pacific island of American Samoa. It struck at a depth of 20.5 miles.

The bulletin estimated a tsunami, if powerful enough to reach Hawaii, would reach the island state approximately 1 p.m. local time (7 p.m. ET).

The warning was issued because a quake of this magnitude had the power to generate a destructive tsunami, the warning center said.

In 2004, a 9.0 quake in the Indian Ocean generated a powerful tsunami that killed tens of thousands people in Asia.

The representative from American Samoa to the U.S. Congress, Eni Faleomavaega, told NBC News that quake hit between the North Marianas Islands and American Samoa, creating 10 to 15- foot waves in populated low-lying areas like Pago Pago Bay.

"Cars were seen floating," the congressman said of Pago Pago Bay.

He said there will likely need to be mass evacuations of low-lying areas and there will be requests for assistance from Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

He said he didn't have any reports on injuries.

The U.S. State Department also said there was no word of American casualties or evacuees

NWS HONOLULU:

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
948 AM HST TUE SEP 29 2009

HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HUMPBACK WHALE NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY.

PHZ124-300845-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
948 AM HST TUE SEP 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...TSUNAMI WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 10 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 10 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 10 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 10 FT.
NORTHEAST SWELL 4 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 11 FT. NORTHEAST
SWELL 4 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 11 FT.
NORTHEAST SWELL 4 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 11 FT. NORTHEAST SWELL
3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...EAST WINDS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 9 TO 10 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
530 AM CHST WED SEP 30 2009

ISLANDS/ATOLLS AND COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES

PMZ173-300500-
POHNPEI-
530 AM CHST WED SEP 30 2009

...UPDATED...TSUNAMI WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN
SHOWERS. COMBINED SEAS 7 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
BECOMING ISOLATED AROUND NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT. COMBINED SEAS 6 TO 7
FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT. COMBINED SEAS 6 FT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KT. COMBINED SEAS 6
FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

1. CURRENT WEATHER EVENTS

A. Severe Weather and Flooding

SPC Chance for Tornadoes:

SPC Chance for Hail:

SPC Chance for Damaging Thunderstorm Wind Gusts:

Today's Severe Weather Reports:

Eastern US Satellite from HPC:

Today's Quantative Precipitation Forecast:

HPC Surface Analysis:

An occluded system is currently moving into Appalachia, with its front extending all the way down to the metropolitan area of Atlanta along the spine of the Appalachians - a place that could use anything but more rain. Light to moderate, yet persistent, rainfall has been reported through parts of western portions of Pennsylvania and Maryland, and in the Ohio River Valley. Ahead of the trough is a region of high moisture along the coast, which could fuel localized heavy rain events throughout the southern Mid Atlantic. The skies are already grey well ahead of the system. Temperatures will return to their original self as the week progresses. Perhaps we will soon see some cooler temperatures as early October progresses, as hinted by models.

Tomorrow, the storm will trail through New England, with questions arising of whether or not it will become a nor'easter and if it will produce possible severe storms over the region. It is yet to be known whether or not the air mass in the New England region will be stable or not by the time the system arrives, the deciding factor in a possible thunderstorm outbreak. While lapse rates are poor and buoyancy is low, the itensification of the system, as well as the wind fields, could induce efficient thunderstorm activity tomorrow. It is a classic wait-and-see situation. Regardless, please be aware of the system passing through and heed advsories, warnings, watches, etc.

DV LOCAL FORECAST UPDATE-4PM MON SEP 28
Just a quick note, a weak line of storms will be moving through the area, and will be passing by Philadelphia at about 4:15-4:30 time frame, with some slight down pours associated with the strongest cell which is up by Lehigh County, part of the Allentown area. The storms are moving eastward at 15 mph. Any downpours will be brief but fierce. Gusts will flirt around the 40 mph mark, mainly out of the southwest. These storms are not expected to intensify to severe threshold. No storms will require the intiation of WWAs, and they should not last very long. The squall should be out of New Jersey and off the coast by 4:45-5. It is associated with a powerful gale currently intensifying over the Great Lakes region.

Philadelphia Radar:

B. Winter Weather
Section begins October 15 and ends April 30

C. Drought, Fire, and Heat

Northeast Current Temperatures:

A small departure from average precipitation has occurred in western Pennsylvania and Maryland. 'Drought' levels have reach category D1-Moderate Drought. The month of September does sometimes see the developments of droughts in the Northeast, but it should not be something to worry much about. The system moving through likely may have relieved some of these drought concerns. There are no heat or fire threats in the Northeast.

D. Other
There are currently no threats that defy categorization

E. Alerts

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for parts of southern Delaware and Maryland.

2. RANDOM NORTHEAST CITIES FORECAST
(from NWS)

The forecast is for the following date:
Sunday, September 27, 2009

Bangor, Maine
Rain likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 55. South wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Camden, New Jersey
Rain, mainly before noon. High near 73. South wind 9 to 13 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Cumberland, Maryland
A chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Light wind becoming west between 12 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Gettysburg, Pennsylvania
Scattered showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. West wind between 3 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Hoboken, New Jersey
Rain, mainly before noon. Patchy fog before noon. High near 72. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Manchester, New Hampshire
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High near 61. East wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Medford, Massachusetts
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High near 66. Southeast wind between 10 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Norwalk, Connecticut
Rain, mainly before noon. Patchy fog before noon. High near 68. East wind between 8 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Providence, Rhode Island
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High near 66. Southeast wind between 7 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Wilmington, Delaware
Rain likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind 10 to 13 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

3. TROPICAL WEATHER CENTER

A. Active Systems

There are no active storms at this time.

B. Development Outlook

Atlantic:

Just a few hours ago, we had a Tropical Depression - Number Eight. However, shear and dry air in the Cape Verde vicinity tore it apart before it got the chance to become the seventh named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Season. That would be Grace. It would appear we are waiting until October for our seventh storm. Honestly, even from warning 1, I did not think the depression was going to earn a name. By this time last year, we were already at Kyle, with Laura to form in a couple days. Meanwhile, thunderstorms have flared in the BOC but no development is expected. Redevelopment of TD8 is very unlikely, but not impossible, so the chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic during the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

East Pacific:

In the EPAC, we have 2 storm systems which do have a chance for development, however they seem to want to take their good old time, as NHC keeps them both at low. While the two of them are rather disorganized and broad, conditions appear favorable for them to gradually develop, and perhaps earn the next name on the EPAC list - Olaf. Meanwhile, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Nora will soon be choked off once and for all. The chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the EPAC during the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

Central Pacific:

No tropical cyclones are expected in the CPAC during the next 24-48 hours.

C. Archives

NAMES:
Bold denotes name was used
Italtic denotes storm active
Regular denotes name not yet used

ATLANTIC:
Ana- Bill - Claudette - Danny - Erika - Fred - Grace - Henri - Ida - Joaquin - Kate - Larry - Mindy - Nicholas - Odette - Peter - Rose - Sam - Theresa - Victor - Wanda

EAST PACIFIC:
Andres - Blanca - Carlos - Delores - Enrique - Felicia - Guillermo - Hilda - Ignacio - Jimena - Kevin - Linda - Marty - Nora - Olaf - Patricia - Rick - Sandra - Terry - Vivian - Waldo - Xina - York - Zelda

CENTRAL PACIFIC:
Lana - Maka - Neki

Storm Archives...

Atlantic:
Tropical Depression 1 - May 28-29
Tropical Storm Ana - August 11-17
Hurricane Bill - August 15-24
Tropical Storm Claudette - August 16-18
Tropical Storm Danny - August 26-29
Tropical Storm Erika - September 1-4
Hurricane Fred - September 7-12
Tropical Depression 8 - September 25-26

East Pacific*:
Tropical Depression 1E - June 18-20
Hurricane Andres - June 21-24
Tropical Storm Blanca - July 6-9
Hurricane Carlos - July 10-16
Tropical Storm Delores - July 15-17
Tropical Storm Enrique - August 3-7
Hurricane Felicia - August 3-11
Tropical Depression 9E - August 9-12
Hurricane Guillermo - August 12-19
Tropical Storm Hilda - August 22-28
Tropical Storm Ignacio - August 24-27
Hurricane Jimena - August 29-September 4
Tropical Storm Kevin - August 29-September 1
Hurricane Linda - September 7-11
Tropical Storm Marty - September 16-19
Tropical Storm Nora - September 22-25

Central Pacific*:
Tropical Storm Lana - July 30-August 3
Hurricane Felicia - August 8-11
Tropical Storm Maka - August 11-12
Hurricane Guillermo - August 16-19
Tropical Storm Hilda - August 23-28
Tropical Depression 2C - August 29-30

*Total lifespan is given for EPAC storms that crossed into the CPAC, only CPAC lifespan is given for EPAC storms that crossed into the basin.

4. MISCELLANEOUS

A. Today's Weather History
(September 26, 2009 from The Weather Notebook)

September 26, 1950- A Blue Moon over the northeast, caused by forest fires over Alberta, Canada.

September 26, 1955- Hurricane Janet deepens explosively in the Caribbean south of Cuba. Te storm increased from a category 1 to category 4 in just 24 hours. The only reconnaissance plane ever to be lost during a hurricane hunter mission was ost in this storm.

September 26, 1963- San Diego records its maximum all time temperature.

September 26, 1970- Santa Ana winds brought fires to Los Angeles County, California, and points south and east. Los Angeles with 105°at the Civic Center and Long Beach at 103°on the 27th were hottest since 1963. Over 500,000 acres burned, as were 1000 structures. Twenty firemen were injured.

September 26, 1971- Project Stormfury experiments in which scientists attempted to weaken the strength of a tropical cyclone by seeding its clouds are conducted on Hurricane Ginger in the Atlantic east of Florida.

B. Word of the Day
Today, I'm starting a small new segment which defines a weather term...

9/26/09
Altostratus Cloud: A cloud of a class characterized by a generally uniform gray sheet or layer, lighter in color than nimbostratus and darker than cirrostratus. These clouds are of medium altitude, about 8000 to 20,000 ft (2400-6100 m).

5. HELPFUL IMAGES

NAM 24 Hour Precip Forecast:

NAM 24 Hour 200 MB Height Setup:

National Forecast from HPC:

Northeast US Humidity:

US Current Weather Map:

US Air Quality:

Philadelphia AOR Temperatures:

View Comments (12)

Updated: 08:10 PM GMT on Setembro 29, 2009

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	COASTAL STORM?

Posted by: wxgeek723, 04:01 PM GMT on Setembro 04, 2009

CURRENT WEATHER THREATS (September 8)1. Severe Weather/FloodingToday's Severe Weather Outlook:Today's Chance for Tornadoes:Today's Chance for Hail:Today's Chance for Damaging TSTM Gusts:Today's Storm Reports:Today's Quantative Precipitation Forecast:North American Surface Analysis:As a ridge builds over the region, a coastal low pressure system will dawdle near the Jersey/Delmarva coastline Wednesday into Thursday, with the potential for classic early season coastal...

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Updated: 11:07 PM GMT on Setembro 08, 2009

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	DANNY, DELAWARE VALLEY TSTMS

Posted by: wxgeek723, 10:30 PM GMT on Agosto 23, 2009

1. CURRENT WEATHER THREATS (August 28)A. Severe Weather/FloodingAn air mass is destabalizing from the Western Shore of the Chesapeake in Maryland and Virginia. Mesoscale analysis shows a warm front which has diffused from a low over the NOVA region (Northern Virginia). The air mass, now currently moving over the remote parts of southern New Jersey, was stable earlier, but no longer remains in that condition. The warm front should move over Jersey today, and surface ...

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Updated: 06:46 PM GMT on Agosto 28, 2009

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	Louisville Floods

Posted by: wxgeek723, 08:22 PM GMT on Agosto 05, 2009

Severe storms are spread in small clusters all over the nation, but I'd like to take a look at the flooding in northern Kentucky, which has for some reason fascinated me. In a bad way of course.Yestersday, Tuesday, the 4th day of August 2009, the metropolitan area of Louisville, Kentucky endured an uncalled-for thunderstorm and flash flood problem. City officials claim this is some of the worst foods in decades. Other opinions feel that the flood of 1997 was much mo...

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	Enrique, Felicia?

Posted by: wxgeek723, 12:42 AM GMT on Agosto 01, 2009

A. CURRENT WEATHER THREATS (August 2)1. Severe Weather/FloodingThe Northeast Region today must be fed up with this constant pattern. Since July 22, we have been storm day, sunny day, storm day, etc. These fronts (and unfortunately this summer) seem to be flying by. Much as I hate to admit it, before you know it, days will shorten and become cooler, hurricane season will end (if it would start), and [hopefully] the line between where tornadoes do and don't form retre...

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Updated: 03:33 AM GMT on Agosto 04, 2009

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